This econometric study covers the world outlook for facial skin care moisturizers across more than 200 countries. For each year reported estimates are given for the latent demand or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) for the country in question (in millions of U.S. dollars) the percent share the country is of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a country vis-a-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study therefore is strategic in nature taking an aggregate and long-run view irrespective of the players or products involved. This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the 230 countries of the world). This study gives however my estimates for the worldwide latent demand or the P.I.E. for facial skin care moisturizers. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided across the world's regional and national markets. For each country I also show my estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time (positive or negative growth). In order to make these estimates a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.[]More detail ...

WHAT IS LATENT DEMAND AND THE P.I.E.?

The concept of latent demand is rather subtle. The term latent typically refers to something that is dormant not observable or not yet realized. Demand is the notion of an economic quantity that a target population or market requires under different assumptions of price quality and distribution among other factors. Latent demand therefore is commonly defined by economists as the industry earnings of a market when that market becomes accessible and attractive to serve by competing firms. It is a measure therefore of potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) or total revenues (not profit) if a market is served in an efficient manner. It is typically expressed as the total revenues potentially extracted by firms. The “market” is defined at a given level in the value chain. There can be latent demand at the retail level at the wholesale level the manufacturing level and the raw materials level (the P.I.E. of higher levels of the value chain being always smaller than the P.I.E. of levels at lower levels of the same value chain assuming all levels maintain minimum profitability).

The latent demand for facial skin care moisturizers is not actual or historic sales. Nor is latent demand future sales. In fact latent demand can be lower either lower or higher than actual sales if a market is inefficient (i.e. not representative of relatively competitive levels). Inefficiencies arise from a number of factors including the lack of international openness cultural barriers to consumption regulations and cartel-like behavior on the part of firms. In general however latent demand is typically larger than actual sales in a country market.

For reasons discussed later this report does not consider the notion of “unit quantities” only total latent revenues (i.e. a calculation of price times quantity is never made though one is implied). The units used in this report are U.S. dollar[]More detail ...